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Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites
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elgato



Joined: 24 Feb 2005
Posts: 17231
Location: Texas

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:51 am    Post subject: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

Annual e-commerce sales will shrink for the first time this year, according to eMarketer. The research firm issued its revised e-commerce forecast Thursday, predicting that shoppers will spend 0.4 percent less online this year than last year.

“We’re seeing a very sober picture — it’s going to be rough this year,” said Jeffrey Grau, a senior analyst at eMarketer. “However, maybe as early as next year, things will begin to pick up where they left off.”

Until last year, e-commerce sales had posted double-digit increases every year since people started buying things online. In 2007, consumers spent $123 billion on Web sites, up 21 percent from 2006 and up from $42 billion in 2002, according to comScore.

The double-digit growth rates continued in the first half of 2008, but by the fourth quarter, sales dipped despite holiday shopping. In 2008, shoppers spent $133.6 billion online, and that will fall to $133.1 billion this year, eMarketer predicted.
more.. link to news article
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Ricardo-san



Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 148

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 7:04 pm    Post subject:  

But why?
When the economy sinks wouldn't people rather get cheaper stuff online?
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Moonwishes



Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 67

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 7:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

My first thought when reading that was it is a small drop, especially if you have thrown off the shackles of ebay and don't have to sell for 2-3 weeks to pay your ebay fees before you make a profit, you can afford a small drop in business. Before we left ebay, we figured we could sell half of what we had been and end up making the same or more money. I also felt bad about seeing all the inventory flying out the door that was only being used to pay ebay--we got nothing out of it, so it was like wasted inventory. We sold exclusively out of an ebay store with over 5000 items in stock so we were paying a lot of fees just to maintain the store and every tweak ebay made buried us more and more.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, it doesn't matter what the gloomy predictors say, the possibility of higher revenues is there if you pick the right venue to sell on, list as much as you can and market as much as possible. I feel much more encouraged about online sales now than I did 6 months ago when most of my sales came through ebay.
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lightning_lash



Joined: 22 Jul 2006
Posts: 367

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

0.4 percent less? That's hardly a gloomy forecast compared to the rest of the economy.
I hope the forecast holds up. I could easily make that up with more listings.
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dlrane



Joined: 03 Jul 2008
Posts: 2406

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

I was thinking the same thing!!! With 133.1B out there for grabs, I think I can get my share of it :idea: :D
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CabinFever



Joined: 13 Feb 2008
Posts: 1478
Location: I'm right behind you...

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2009 10:29 pm    Post subject:  

Doesn't sound as gloomy as the title would indicate!
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Ricardo-san



Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 148

Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:29 pm    Post subject:  

Just reread the post...0.4 bil drop isn't that much. Considering the size of the market.
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cohibastore.com



Joined: 14 Sep 2006
Posts: 4908

Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 4:49 pm    Post subject:  

Ricardo-san wrote (View Post): › docWrite("quote")But why? When the economy sinks wouldn't people rather get cheaper stuff online?

Since a large number of buyers live week to week from paycheck to paycheck, thats around 20% of the working population plus their families, any disruption stops spending 100%. They don't have savings, their credit is maxed out and anything sold online is usually not essential for life like food or shelter. So yes while its cheaper online, they don't need it to live.

CS
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Ricardo-san



Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 148

Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 9:17 pm    Post subject:  

cohibastore.com wrote (View Post): › docWrite("quote")
Ricardo-san wrote (View Post): › docWrite("quote")But why? When the economy sinks wouldn't people rather get cheaper stuff online?

Since a large number of buyers live week to week from paycheck to paycheck, thats around 20% of the working population plus their families, any disruption stops spending 100%. They don't have savings, their credit is maxed out and anything sold online is usually not essential for life like food or shelter. So yes while its cheaper online, they don't need it to live.

CS

Ah, I understand. Thanks.
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Moonwishes



Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 67

Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:39 am    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

It may seem like gloom and doom and if that is what you focus on, that is what you get. There are still people out there with money to spend. So focus on reaching those customers. What you have to remember is that when you sell on line you have the potential for several million customers. ALL of them have to go broke before you will be put out of business.

My ecrater sales have already passed up the entire month of ecrater sales in February and we are only half way through March.
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mikessportingoods



Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 34

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:27 am    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

Our ecrater sales are picking up.
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DaLizardsLair



Joined: 15 Feb 2009
Posts: 4780

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:20 am    Post subject:  

Ricardo-san wrote (View Post): › docWrite("quote")Just reread the post...0.4 bil drop isn't that much. Considering the size of the market.

Actually, it's a .5 billion, which works out to a 500 MILLION dollar DECREASE in online sales, for an industry that has been seeing INCREASES each quarter up to now.

It's similar in nature to companies reporting that their PROFITS are down, so they need to lay people off. I've always figured, that if an industry is showing a profit, why the need to let employees go?

Personally, I figure that the majority of the decrease will be with the big corporate entites...ebay, Amazon, etc., as opposed to the little "mom & pop" type operations. The reason is simply, as another has already posted, that the smaller operations have for the most part, broken away from the big corporate ecommerce sites and are going after their small piece of the pie independently.

Without having to pay the fees we were paying with ebay or Amazon, we can make more money with fewer sales, therefore we're not as vulnerable to the ravages of the marketplace. Granted, we have to do more work to get the public to do business with us in the first place, but anyone who is showing success in sales already knows that, and is used to putting in the effort to get the results.

So, all in all, this news won't hurt my sales in the least, nor those of most of my friends that are dealing with online sales. The ones that WILL be hurt are those who are continuing to try and make a living at the big sites. They are the ones who will continue to vent about lower sales, fewer hits on their items and of course the biggest gripe of all....THE FEES!!....

Gotta love it!... :lol: :roll: :lol:
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diesel_parts



Joined: 23 Jul 2006
Posts: 723

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:23 am    Post subject:  

My sales are picking up as usual in in the spring. Grass still grows and the water is still calling the boaters to come on in. Cars and motorcycles still break down. I hopefully will get my share of that 133.1 Billion.

133.1 Billion givews me a lot of inspiration.

That is a lot of money but AIG fleeced the government out of app 175 Billion. More than all the sales on the internet combined.

That shows how important your large political campaign contributions are.
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doulcefrance



Joined: 12 May 2008
Posts: 128

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

I stopped selling on eBay end-Nobember 2008. Fees were killing my business.
I started listing on www.delcampe.net & www.delcampe.com about 7 weeks ago - no listing fees.
I sell stamps and everything related to philately.
I made 27 sales so far, worth over $600.00
Not much, but I'm starting to get some recognition on Delcampe and am hopefull.
On www.delcampe.net there are almost 22 million listings, way over 500,000 items sold every month.
Delcampe has been around since 2001.
They operates in 6 languages: English, French, Italian, German, Spanish and Dutch - both auctions and fixed prices.

They are one of the biggest sites around, but for some reason, they are not recognized by PSU.

The US site is www.delcampe.com
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Moonwishes



Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 67

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Gloomy Forecast for E-Commerce Sites  

During this type of economy there seem to be two types of people. Those that listen to all the gloomy news, get depressed and throw in the towel since if internet sales are going to be down, what's the point of trying. The other type, roll up their sleeves and get to work, believing that it is a golden opportunity to increase sales, or even is sales are a bit slow, a perfect time to catch up with all those odds and ends chores that have been put off while you were busy. Amazing how many or those odds and ends can mean money in the bank!

An example: I bought an old book at a yard sale for a dime once. It sat around for a long time because I knew it would take some research and careful descriptions to sell it. I hit a lull and took the time, over a year after buying the book, to research it and list it. It sold within ONE week for $125! That was over a $100 sitting around on my desk being worthless because I hadn't taken the time to list it.

Extra time means chances to update your website and blogs, do some marketing, tweak your listings and Google attributes, scout new inventory, etc. It is your chance to completely break away from the pack of whiners and complainers that blame everything but themselves on their lack of sales. I think that is why I can't stand going to some forums as there are way too many whiners and complainers on them and if you listen to that drivel every day you too will be depressed and not wanting to do what you have to to get your sales figures up.
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